Global Macro Trading and Macroeconomics

By Bruce Soros

As the name implies the global macro trader focuses on everything on the globe. This might be a bog statement but it is basically true. Macro traders have to look at stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and the G-10 nations at the very least. Most of course look at all these asset classes across twenty to forty countries. They do this so that they have more trading opportunities and can find the best risk reward situations possible.

Now that you understand that the macro trader covers everything everywhere it should make sense as to why they must understand economics. The macro trader must have a solid grasp of global macroeconomics as well as country specific economics.

Possibly the best example of a country where you need to understand the economic situation is that of Japan. Their stock market is essentially flat from 1982 all the way to 2009. During that time it has gone up ten times and then fallen back and then climbed and fallen again and again. This was not a random occurrence and if you understood the economic dynamics at play it would have made sense to you. Essentially once their bubble burst in the early nineties they entered a period of stagflation and occasionally deflation and they have not had asset growth for thirty years.

If you had put money to work in Japan without understanding the macroeconomic situation you would have lost or best case broken even after years and years of work. Stocks do not always go up and the long term in Japans case has been 30 years so far. Yes, macroeconomics are important.

Another trade where you could have made a lot of money was in commodities, commodity currencies, and commodity stocks from 2002 to mid 2008. Not only were we coming out of the dot com bust but were also amazingly underinvested in our global natural resources.

If you had been following the global economic environment you would have been able to spot this trend and would have been able to get on board for one of the best trades in the last twenty years. You likely would have bought countries like Brazil and other emerging markets.

Value investors and supposed pure stock pickers are notorious for claiming to not need economics. We only buy stocks they say. Well the truth is that all stocks are part of and are affected by the economy. You can lose fifty percent of your money when a supposed surprise economic disaster happens or look at the signs, see it coming, and profit.

Global macroeconomics and macro trading obviously go hand in hand. But it is also worth it for any type of investor to follow the economy so that they are better aware of the different risks out there that can destroy their investments. Don't trade in a vacuum, instead climb up on the mountain and look over the entire investment landscape. - 23217

About the Author:

If you need actionable trading ideas then check out The Macro Trader It is a weekly global macroeconomic advisory publication with frequent intra-week updates for time-critical analysis and actionable trading ideas.