Forex Market Trends - The Holy Grail Of Trading?
If you talk to a day trader about Forex market trends, he will shrug and tell you there is no such thing. Swing traders and long term traders know better. They will explain to you that there is a fortune to be made in "trading with the trend". What is the truth? Or are both groups wrong, or perhaps both are right?
If you are a day trader, you are of course not concerned with whether there is something like a ten year up and down trend in a particular currency market. For you the long term is between breakfast and lunch - late afternoon is a distant horizon that doesn't concern you at all. Many day traders do large numbers of trades during a single day, making or losing small amounts of money all the time.
Another type of trader is the so called swing trader. Swing traders do not trade as often as day traders. They wait for a medium term trend in the market, and then either go long or short on a particular currency. They will stay in the trade for as long as the trend lasts, and try to get out just before it reverses. This of course is more of an art than a science, since there is nobody that can actually predict when the market will turn around. External factors can cause it to turn around within a matter of hours.
The third category of trader is the long term trader. They are not really traders at all, but should actually be called investors. They would only buy a currency if underlying economic factors (fundamental factors) indicate that the currency is on a long term upward trend. If the reverse is true, they would sell it (or go short in trading lingo). They do use technical indicators from time to time, but then over a much longer time frame than either day traders or swing traders.
The tools of choice for day traders are called technical indicators. These are a series of mathematical formulas often displayed visually in the form of charts. All of them have one thing in common: they use the historical behavior of the market to try and predict future price movements. The most basic technical indicator is probably the moving average. A moving average charts gives one a good visual impression of the direction the price of a currency has been moving in over the past five seconds, or five years, depending on the time frame you are trading in. Another popular group of technical indicators are the trending indicators. They are more refined than simple averages, but still attempt to predict future ups and downs in the price by analyzing past behavior, and then trying to project that into the future.
Another type of analysis, used more by swing traders and long term traders is called fundamental analysis. In fundamental analysis one would try to identify 'fundamental' economic factors that will have an effect on the future price movements of a particular currency. One such example is the effect interest rates have on the value of a currency. If the interest rate goes up, it will have an effect on the value of that country's currency which could not be predicted by looking at technical indicators alone.
Three popular chart types used by traders are line charts, candlestick charts, and bar charts. Line charts simply connect closing prices over a period of time. Candlestick charts show opening and closing prices, as well as the high and low point for the day in a colored bar. Monochrome bar charts only show the opening and closing prices.
Forex market trends is a subject that often causes heated debate among traders. There are as many experts as there are traders. Some swear by "the trend is your friend". Others do quite well with buying a solid currency like the Euro when its price is dropping, because they know it will sooner or later rise again. - 23217
If you are a day trader, you are of course not concerned with whether there is something like a ten year up and down trend in a particular currency market. For you the long term is between breakfast and lunch - late afternoon is a distant horizon that doesn't concern you at all. Many day traders do large numbers of trades during a single day, making or losing small amounts of money all the time.
Another type of trader is the so called swing trader. Swing traders do not trade as often as day traders. They wait for a medium term trend in the market, and then either go long or short on a particular currency. They will stay in the trade for as long as the trend lasts, and try to get out just before it reverses. This of course is more of an art than a science, since there is nobody that can actually predict when the market will turn around. External factors can cause it to turn around within a matter of hours.
The third category of trader is the long term trader. They are not really traders at all, but should actually be called investors. They would only buy a currency if underlying economic factors (fundamental factors) indicate that the currency is on a long term upward trend. If the reverse is true, they would sell it (or go short in trading lingo). They do use technical indicators from time to time, but then over a much longer time frame than either day traders or swing traders.
The tools of choice for day traders are called technical indicators. These are a series of mathematical formulas often displayed visually in the form of charts. All of them have one thing in common: they use the historical behavior of the market to try and predict future price movements. The most basic technical indicator is probably the moving average. A moving average charts gives one a good visual impression of the direction the price of a currency has been moving in over the past five seconds, or five years, depending on the time frame you are trading in. Another popular group of technical indicators are the trending indicators. They are more refined than simple averages, but still attempt to predict future ups and downs in the price by analyzing past behavior, and then trying to project that into the future.
Another type of analysis, used more by swing traders and long term traders is called fundamental analysis. In fundamental analysis one would try to identify 'fundamental' economic factors that will have an effect on the future price movements of a particular currency. One such example is the effect interest rates have on the value of a currency. If the interest rate goes up, it will have an effect on the value of that country's currency which could not be predicted by looking at technical indicators alone.
Three popular chart types used by traders are line charts, candlestick charts, and bar charts. Line charts simply connect closing prices over a period of time. Candlestick charts show opening and closing prices, as well as the high and low point for the day in a colored bar. Monochrome bar charts only show the opening and closing prices.
Forex market trends is a subject that often causes heated debate among traders. There are as many experts as there are traders. Some swear by "the trend is your friend". Others do quite well with buying a solid currency like the Euro when its price is dropping, because they know it will sooner or later rise again. - 23217
posted by X - Men @ 3:31 AM
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