Oil & Forex Trading
Wall Street always watches crude oil prices. During the early part of 2008, oil prices jumped skyward from near $75 to almost $140 within the span of a few short months. It was more than a 100% increase. All over the world, consumers started feeling huge pressures on their monthly bills. People started using bicycles. Many hedge fund managers heavily speculated on crude oil futures. Some made a windfall, other lost when the oil prices suddenly collapsed in a few months.
Most of the increase in the oil prices was due to speculation by the hedge funds. When the stock markets crashed in the middle of 2008, most of the hedge funds had to liquidate their investments in oil futures to cover their stock portfolio losses. The prices came down just as they had gone up. The prices are down now due to low consumer demand in a global recession. But it is being predicted by the analyst that with a recovery in the global economy, the oil prices will go up again.
As oil prices go up, consumers are forced to spend more on oil. The more they spend on oil, the less they can spend on other products. The less they spend on other products, the less profit companies make. Declining profits made by these companies mean declining stock prices.
The opposite is also true. The less the oil prices become, the more Wall Street becomes optimistic about the profit potential of companies. This increased optimism leads to increase in stock prices. Two large futures exchanges are used to determine the prices of oil. They are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
Historically, rising oil prices have been associated with falling stock markets. NYME is where most of the crude oil futures are traded. By monitoring the movement of the crude oil futures in NYME, you can develop a feel of the future economic situation of the United States. Since oil is heavily traded in US Dollar, this affects the US Dollar. The net effect is however a bit complicated.
Lets take a look at it more closely. When oil prices increase, the demand for US Dollar also increases as most of the countries need US Dollar to pay for their oil imports. Increased demand for US Dollar means that it should appreciate.
But this is not the whole picture. We have to take another aspect into account. Increased oil prices also hurt the US economy. Now, which effect is more important for the currency markets?
The effect varies from one currency pair to another currency pair. If you are watching a currency that involves the USD and a currency representing a country that does well during the times of high oil prices like Canada that has huge oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, the effect would be drop in the value of USD/CAD pair. US imports more oil from Canada than any other country. If you are watching a currency pair that involves USD and a currency whose economy is hampered by the rising oil prices, the demand for USD will rise.
So some currencies have positive correlation with oil prices and other currencies have negative correlation with rising oil prices. The currency pair CAD/JPY shows the strongest reaction to rising oil prices. Japan imports almost 100% oil.
When oil prices are going to rise again, watch for CAD/JPY currency pair. CAD is positively correlated with oil prices and JPY is negatively correlated. So CAD/JPY has the strongest reaction to rise in oil prices. It can be a very good currency pair to trade during times of rising oil prices. - 23217
Most of the increase in the oil prices was due to speculation by the hedge funds. When the stock markets crashed in the middle of 2008, most of the hedge funds had to liquidate their investments in oil futures to cover their stock portfolio losses. The prices came down just as they had gone up. The prices are down now due to low consumer demand in a global recession. But it is being predicted by the analyst that with a recovery in the global economy, the oil prices will go up again.
As oil prices go up, consumers are forced to spend more on oil. The more they spend on oil, the less they can spend on other products. The less they spend on other products, the less profit companies make. Declining profits made by these companies mean declining stock prices.
The opposite is also true. The less the oil prices become, the more Wall Street becomes optimistic about the profit potential of companies. This increased optimism leads to increase in stock prices. Two large futures exchanges are used to determine the prices of oil. They are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYME) and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
Historically, rising oil prices have been associated with falling stock markets. NYME is where most of the crude oil futures are traded. By monitoring the movement of the crude oil futures in NYME, you can develop a feel of the future economic situation of the United States. Since oil is heavily traded in US Dollar, this affects the US Dollar. The net effect is however a bit complicated.
Lets take a look at it more closely. When oil prices increase, the demand for US Dollar also increases as most of the countries need US Dollar to pay for their oil imports. Increased demand for US Dollar means that it should appreciate.
But this is not the whole picture. We have to take another aspect into account. Increased oil prices also hurt the US economy. Now, which effect is more important for the currency markets?
The effect varies from one currency pair to another currency pair. If you are watching a currency that involves the USD and a currency representing a country that does well during the times of high oil prices like Canada that has huge oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, the effect would be drop in the value of USD/CAD pair. US imports more oil from Canada than any other country. If you are watching a currency pair that involves USD and a currency whose economy is hampered by the rising oil prices, the demand for USD will rise.
So some currencies have positive correlation with oil prices and other currencies have negative correlation with rising oil prices. The currency pair CAD/JPY shows the strongest reaction to rising oil prices. Japan imports almost 100% oil.
When oil prices are going to rise again, watch for CAD/JPY currency pair. CAD is positively correlated with oil prices and JPY is negatively correlated. So CAD/JPY has the strongest reaction to rise in oil prices. It can be a very good currency pair to trade during times of rising oil prices. - 23217
About the Author:
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Learn Forex Nitty Gritty. Discover Forex Magic Machine. Try Netpicks Forex Signal Service.