Breakout Trading (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

When the currency price moves beyond the period of consolidation or range trading, a breakout typically occurs. Massive profits are what breakout trading can provide you. Who doesnt want to reap massive profits from a big price move in a short time?

Even though breakouts are known to be technically unstable, there are times when trading the breakout can be very profitable. When the price moves above or below a support or resistance level whether temporarily or permanently, a breakout occurs.

You will have to take into account many market factors including both the technical and the fundamental analysis in order to trade breakouts with a higher probability of success.

Both stocks and futures are traded on a centralized exchange. At the end of the day the traders can find out the volume of each security that had been traded during the day. The volume information is easily available for stocks and futures. Information about volume is critical to trading the breakout.

However, volume data is not available for forex markets due to its OTC nature. Being decentralized, this data cannot be collected. Lack of forex volume data is a huge disadvantage to forex traders. Volume reveals where the market is positioned or positioning.

Successful breakouts are generally accompanied by a rise in volume. Volume is a very important criterion for any breakout trading strategy. It signals a change in the underlying supply and demand conditions possibly triggered by a change in market sentiments caused by some new markets fundamentals when the price attempts a breakout of a significant support or resistance level.

Price breakouts can be of two types: 1) Continuation Breakouts and 2) Reversal Breakouts. Successful breakouts must be accompanied with a strong surge of momentum in the direction of the breakout in order to be sustainable. Poor momentum will generally lead to the fizzling out of the breakout and continuation of the existing trend.

Continuation Breakout: In a continuation breakout, the price action climbs higher in continuation of an uptrend or falls further lower in a downtrend. Currency prices break out of an established price level to again resume the underlying trend. The breakout occurs after a period of consolidation. The buyers and sellers of the currency pair try to regroup and think about the next price move.

Reversal Breakout: Reversal breakout means a new trend in the opposite direction. It is caused by new market fundamentals. A breakout my lead to a trend reversal and the beginning of a new trend in the opposite direction!

A false breakout may occur. The prices may break the support or resistance but then retreat back into the previous price zone. There are many times when the price action does not move in a straightforward direction in the markets.

If they have placed their stops just above or below the resistance or support levels, stopping out most of the breakout traders! The worst kind of a breakout is the whipsaw type. - 23217

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Know The Forex Market. Learn Forex Trading!

Black Horse Fund Is Refining Its Algorithm

By Robert Miller

Forex investment requires a combination of technical and fundamental analysis in order to trade knowledgeably. Successful Forex investors stay ahead of the curve by not only watching their stocks but also by watching their data collection methods.

The forex investment gurus at Black Horse Fund created an algorithm that they derived from their collective expertise. That algorithm normally undergoes constant minor revisions and was recently upgraded with a new set of data-reviewing and insight-generating calculations.

The private forex fund Black Horse Fund is a limited partnership. Partners pool their money and Black Horse Fund trades on their behalf, applying the collected expertise of their trading staff to profit from fluctuations in foreign currency, a market that is larger and more liquid than the equity market.

When investors use fundamental analysis to make trading decisions, they are deriving insight from new reports and macro and micro economic data to help them understand the health and potential movement of a particular currency.

Technical analysis tracks trends and charts, comparing various pricing events in the life of a currency, currency pair, or overall marketing condition. Traders use an algorithm to monitor and flag these events and perform initial interpretation on the data. Then they take that initial data and perform their own insightful analysis.

Black Horse Fund's algorithm is a key part of the technical trading side of their business, and a large contributor to the successful trades they've made. Creating the algorithm was only a part of the story but maintaining it in the midst of an ever-changing marketplace requires focus and attention to detail.

Partners have enjoyed Black Horse Fund's success so far, thanks in no small part to the algorithm. New partners are joining and quickly filling up the limited number of partnerships spots that are available. - 23217

About the Author:

For more information about Black Horse Fund, their algorithm or membership availability please contact them directly

High Probability Forex Trading Using Engulfing Patterns

By Tim Barnby

Few things are more satisfying to me that bare chart trading. Ive seen traders with so many indicators on their screen that I could not even see the price of the currency pair. What do any of these indicators tell you anyway? Do I need a MACD or a CCI? I can see which direction the trend is moving without them. How about a stochastic? I can see where candles are closing relative to the high or low. Other than some horizontal lines at key support and resistance levels, some Fibonacci retracements, and trend lines I often have nothing on my charts at all. All of these are topics for future articles.

A bullish engulfing pattern is characterized by having a real body which completely engulfs the real body of the preceding candle. A simpler way of describing this is that the bullish engulfing candle has a higher open and a lower close than the preceding candle. A bearish engulfing candle has a lower open and a higher close than the bar immediately preceding it.

The bullish and bearish engulfing patterns are powerful indicators of a trend reversal. Engulfing patterns must appear after a significant run up or down in price to be considered valid. When the engulfing pattern presents itself at a probable price reversal zone, or a confluence of support or resistance it is even more reliable. My experience has shown these patterns to be over 75% reliable, and normally offer at least a two to one reward to risk ratio when traded on the one hour or four hour charts. They are even more reliable on the daily and weekly charts.

There are a couple of valid methods for trading engulfing patterns. The first is pretty basic. You place a market order at the close of the candle. Your stop loss order goes a few pips past the opposite side of the engulfing candle, and the target goes somewhere at least twice the distance of the stop loss. Using this method, if the engulfing candle has a 50 pip range, your stop loss would be about 55 pips and your target would be about 110 pips away from your entry. The more advanced method involves pulling a Fibonacci retracement tool on the engulfing candle. Place your entry order at the 38.2%, 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci level of the candle, and place the stop loss in the same position as the first method. This method gives you a smaller stop loss, which offers you a much high per pip value, and a bigger target. It has a lower rate of successful fills, so youll have fewer trades using this entry method.

No matter what your method of entry is, you will profit from trading these powerful reversal indicators. Youll also save yourself the stress of conflicting technical indicators and cluttered screens. Trade this pattern for a week and see if I am wrong. - 23217

About the Author:

For more information on Forex Trading, please come to the Market Mover Edge and look at our mentoring programs and live trading rooms. You can join my FREE forex signals list at Forex Master-Mind Newsletter

Forex Trading - Common Sense Takes You A Long Way

By Jimmie Harrison

We understand that you are here because you are interested in forex trading. Many individuals here about forex, but they are not really sure what it is. You have some that know for a fact that they could make money out of it, but they are not sure where to go or whom to ask. Well, right now, we can tell you that you are not alone in this situation. Many individuals think they know all about Forex trading, but in reality, many of them are under the belief that it is about bonds or stocks. You see, it is deeper than bonds or stocks. With this trading, it will involve trading currency pairs.

The currencies that are chosen over others are chosen because they have more value and are of higher quality. Are you a newcomer to this trading world? If so, then we highly recommend you listening to what the experts have to tell you. Even if those experts tell you something that doesn't sound like it will work, you should listen to them. Why? Because if you are a newcomer, then you may be thinking in a whole other direction. As for the experts, they have been trading for many years and know all of the tips and tricks. They are very much qualified to give out advice.

People throughout the world are participating in forex trading. There are so many opportunities through trading that individuals, organizations and firms are benefiting each year. Those benefits are rapidly growing as the process becomes even more popular.

If you are just starting out with these trading features, then you should not worry about anything, because there are many companies that are legitimate. Those companies out there are willing to help you along with the adventure of forex trading. You should not get fooled by those advertisements put out by companies offering high profits with a minimal risk. Why? Because honestly, this is a false statement.

As you are starting out, you are going to find many legitimate companies. Those companies are there to take you by the hand and help you our with your adventures. They will be willing to answer any questions that you may have and from time to time will give you advice. Take note that there is no such thing as getting high profits and minimal risk.

It just goes without saying that the more profits you want to bring in, the higher your risks are going to be. We know, this is one of the sayings that chase many individuals off and if you do not feel like you have money that you are willing to put on the line, then you may want to back out of it.

However, for all of you risk takers out there, you just might get lucky. However, don't let that luck get caught up in between greed as greed can really ruin an individual.

When it comes to that trading company, you should always make sure you check the background of them. If you run across a company that does not allow information about their history or background to be found, then that should be a red flag to you.

Getting involved in forex trading is probably one of the best decisions you have made in a long time. However, when you go in this field, you will need to have your mind on straight. You cannot jump in expecting to get a lot of money, because this is only going to mess you up. We wish you luck as you make you are trading currencies and don't forget to do your homework. - 23217

About the Author:

In conclusion, making good decisions on the foreign exchange market depends exclusively on your knowledge level. Forex Assassin System It's all about managing risk-that includes riskiness that you take on unnecessarily. If you want to trade on the foreign exchange market you should learn to confront risk with a positive attitude.

Money Management Principles in Forex Trading (Part III)

By Ahmad Hassam

Perhaps the best advice that you will receive in your trading career is live to trade another day. Currency markets are volatile, brutal and unforgiving. You should learn to survive in the markets.

The single most common factor that causes many currency traders to blow up their accounts and lose all their money is greed. You start taking unnecessary risks when you get greedy. You will spend many hours trying to find the Holy Grail technical indictor or a forex robot that can make you rich. You will believe that by discovering that secret, you will become rich.

Unfortunately there is no Holy Grail in trading. You must learn not to risk more than 2% of your account on a single trade. Incrementally grow your account over time and never ever be tempted to risk big making one single winning trade that can make you rich.

The most important thing that you should know is how much you are willing to risk in a single trade. This is more important than your trading strategy. I said dont risk more than 2% in a single trade. But if you are a risk taker and want to be aggressive, you can go up to 5%. Dont exceed 5%, stay between 1-5%. If you are risk averse and are conservative, on the other hand, you should consider risking between 1-2% only.

Once you have decided on the amount of risk you are willing to take, the rest is simple. Suppose you have a $50,000 account. You decide on a risk of 2% only. How much you can risk on a single trade? (50,000)(0.02)=$1,000. This is the maximum amount you should risk on a single trade.

However, if you are going to trade more than one position at the same time, the amount may become higher. Lets assume you are in 3 trades at the same time trading three currency pairs! You should risk only $1,000 per trade. So your total money at risk will be (3) (1000) =$3,000. Once you have calculated your risk, you are can determine the trade size.

Trade size is the number of contracts you purchase in any one trade. To determine the trade size, you need to first determine where you want to put your stop loss. Lets use an example to make it clear. Suppose you are willing to risk $1000 on trading EUR/USD pair. You decide on a stop loss of 50 pips. Each pip on EUR/USD pair is $10 worth. So the number of contracts that you need to trade are (1,000)/ (50) (10) =2.

You have taken the guesswork out of your trading once you have determined your risk level and calculated the trade size. You can sleep well now knowing how much of your money is at risk. You are going to be able to trade tomorrow, no matter what happens today.

Using these common money management rules will help you avoid the pitfall of losing almost all the money in your account. Learning to survive the markets and trade another day is the essence of trading. This can help your trading take the next level of profitability. - 23217

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading and swing trading stocks and currencies. Trade Dow Futures. Learn Forex Trading.